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AI & Intelligence

Monte Carlo Forecasting

Probabilistic delivery date estimation.

Monte Carlo Forecasting

How It Works

Runs 100-5000 simulations using PERT distribution sampling to estimate delivery dates.

Reading the Results

  • P50: 50% confidence date (median)
  • P80: 80% confidence date (recommended for planning)
  • P95: 95% confidence date (conservative)

S-Curve

The S-curve chart shows the cumulative probability of completing by each date.

Historical Calibration

When historical velocity data is available, estimates are calibrated against actual team performance.

Tags

monte carloforecastprobabilitydelivery

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